By Zachary Partnoy
The year 2023 was the best one for movies—commercially, critically, and culturally—since before the Covid pandemic. That means a lot, because the pandemic dealt a blow to moviegoing and to the role of movies in our culture that many feared would be a knockout. In the past several years, the movie industry has been hammered by larger cultural and economic trends toward streaming and Big Data creative control. Viewership of the Academy Awards dwindled, and the gap between those who watch blockbusters and those who watch critically acclaimed films widened to disturbing levels. In desperate bids at cultural relevance, the Academy gave awards to safer films (that often tracked in identitarianism), making dreadful choices that have shrouded the institution in ignominy.
But that’s all over now (maybe). This past year—despite the seismic impact of the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes—marks the beginning of the long-awaited bounceback. The major moment happened in one critical weekend last June, when Barbie and Oppenheimer, the two films that made the biggest cultural splash of last year, were released on the same weekend. The near-$2 billion zeitgeist phenomenon known as “Barbenheimer” kickstarted an excellent fall slate of new films from some of the most talented filmmakers in the world, including Martin Scorsese, Yorgos Lanthimos, Alexander Payne, and Justine Triet.
The comeback of the movies matters, because movies still boast the greatest capacity for artistic expression and narrative richness of any popular art form in the world. Films must continue to matter, and be prized above the other inundations of our visual culture. The expansive, thoughtful, and entertaining films of the past year have shown us that the art form continues to be vibrant, against all odds. Despite strikes which shook Hollywood to its core, and the continuing challenges posed by the streaming economy, the movies are alive and well. In fact, this weekend (Mar. 1) will see the release of another long-awaited blockbuster: Dune: Part Two. It won’t even be eligible for these Oscars because of its pushed-back release date. But it bodes well for an even better year in movies in 2024. And I for one am very excited.
The following are my picks for what will win and what should win at the Academy Awards this year, which will air at 7:00 PM EDT on Sunday March 10 (you’ll be on spring break; get off the beach and watch, darn it).
In the list below, the films bolded in each category are the ones I think I will win, and those bolded within the paragraph are the ones I want to win.
Best Picture
“American Fiction”
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“Barbie”
“The Holdovers”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Past Lives”
“Poor Things”
“The Zone of Interest”
There seems to be little question at this point that the Academy will honor Christopher Nolan’s titanic, transformative film with many awards, and Best Picture will be chief among them. Nolan—the most visionary, innovative, and intellectual filmmaker of large-scale films in Hollywood—amply deserves the honor, and “Oppenheimer” will almost certainly win.
Oppenheimer was certainly a titanic accomplishment, but for my money, the best film of last year was the tender and muted “Anatomy of a Fall.” I saw this one much later into the season than many other films, and it rocked me to my core. A moving, shrewdly crafted procedural drama about love, art, motherhood, and guilt, “Anatomy of a Fall” made me regret everything disparaging I’ve ever said about French cinema. And that’s saying something.
Best Director
Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “Poor Things”
Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest”
Even with the exclusion of Bradley Cooper, this category is stacked with maestros. Nevertheless, Christopher Nolan, who has never received an Oscar, deserves the trophy for his most provocative and ambitious work to date. Christopher Nolan both will and should win.
It’s worth noting that Martin Scorsese, who was infamously long snubbed by the Academy until he won for The Departed, also made a technically virtuosic film in which he guided three masterful performances, but Nolan’s achievement is on an even greater scale.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”
Colman Domingo, “Rustin”
Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”
Paul Giamatti is one of my favorite actors and “The Holdovers” was my favorite film from last year, but I think Cillian Murphy deserves this award. His chilling, captivating performance anchored a three-hour film about quantum physics: ‘Nuff said.
Cillian Murphy should win, but the race seems neck-and-neck between him and Paul Giamatti (who won at the Golden Globes, in a separate category from Murphy, and against Murphy at the Critics’ Choice Awards, while Murphy won the SAG). If Giamatti wins, it will be a career-honoring and long overdue first Oscar for the peerless actor, whose tenderly Scroogean performance in “The Holdovers” was a pitch-perfect masterclass. Truth be told, there are no undeserving candidates in this remarkable category (Bradley Cooper was revelatory in “Maestro,” and Jeffrey Wright turns in some of the best-observed work of his career in “American Fiction.”
Best Actress
Annette Bening, “Nyad”
Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”
Emma Stone, “Poor Things”
Increasingly, it seems like Gladstone, whose magnetic and muted performance provides the emotional core of Killers of the Flower Moon, will win Best Actress. By my reckoning, however, the most moving performance of last year was Carey Mulligan’s flawless turn as Felicia Montealegre, the dynamic, tortured socialite wife of Leonard Bernstein in Maestro. While Carey Mulligan deserves her first Oscar, and Emma Stone would also be a superb pick for her deliriously imaginative and physically challenging work in Poor Things, my money is on the rising star Lily Gladstone. It’s also worth mentioning the astounding Sandra Hüller (who also featured in this year’s “The Zone of Interest” and radiates an utterly absorbing intensity).
Best Original Screenplay
“Anatomy of a Fall”—Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
“The Holdovers”—David Hemingson
“Maestro”—Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer
“May December”—Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik
“Past Lives”—Celine Song
This is an excellent bunch. Due to some arcane classification rules, “Barbie” was placed in the adapted category, a needless slight to the originality of that visionary film. Until I saw “Anatomy of a Fall” the clear winner for me was David Hemingson’s deeply personal, profoundly well-crafted script for The Holdovers. From Paul Giamatti hilarious Scrooge-isms to the heartfelt emotional tete-a-tetes at its core, it is pure perfection in screenwriting. While I feel I must give the award to “Anatomy of a Fall,” the most dynamic and narratively complex film of the year, a shoutout is still warranted to The Holdovers (and to Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer for their novel approach to the genre for “Maestro” and to Samy Burch for her twistily inventive approach to “May December,” an exploration of the lies we tell ourselves to cover up our basest selves).
Best Adapted Screenplay
“American Fiction,”—Cord Jefferson
“Barbie”—Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
“Oppenheimer”—Christopher Nolan
“Poor Things”— Tony McNamara
“The Zone of Interest”—Jonathan Glazer
Remarkably, this is the stronger of the two screenplay categories, partially aided by the dubious designation of “adapted” for Barbie, the presumptive winner. If the Academy is feeling like a sweep will save them some time in the voting booth, they will give the award to Nolan, whose innovative first-person script for “Oppenheimer” is comprehensive, erudite, and well-paced. Nevertheless, the most dynamic, original work in the category can be found elsewhere—every nominee is a plausible and deserving winner, but in anticipation that “Barbie” might be snubbed elsewhere, I hope Gerwig becomes an Oscar winner to cement her status as the pre-eminent female director in Hollywood.
Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”
Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”
This is the surest bet of the night. Robert Downey Jr. has been on a coronation tour of the awards ceremonies, and Hollywood seems eager to send him a reinforcing message; we like you in serious movies, too. His post-Marvel career already boasts a magnificent performance in Nolan’s epic, and it is extremely exciting to see what work he might choose next; the sky is the limit for arguably the most talented male actor of his generation. Behind him is a fairly star-studded category of also-rans, however, and it is worth remarking on Robert De Niro’s characteristically towering work in “Killers of the Flower Moon” and Ryan Gosling’s hilarious, plastically soulful performance in “Barbie,” which would be my winner were it not for Downey. In my book, the nomination is Kenough.
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
America Ferrera, “Barbie”
Jodie Foster, “Nyad”
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s exquisite, deeply affecting performance in “The Holdovers,” the best-acted film of the year, seems nearly as much of a lock as Downey. This is not the strongest category, given the presence of some smaller performances in terms of screen time (America Ferrera, for example, was nominated solely on the basis of her brief (if powerful) monologue in “Barbie.”) Randolph’s performance is more central to “The Holdovers,” adding another layer to its already deeply moving central relationship.
Best Original Score
“American Fiction”—Laura Karpman
“Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny”—John Williams
“Killers of the Flower Moon”—Robbie Robertson
“Oppenheimer”—Ludwig Goransson
“Poor Things”—Jerksin Fendrix
There have been precious few great film scores in recent years—it seems to be a focal part of the craft for fewer and fewer filmmakers, who instead turn to jukebox soundtracks and highly electronic soundscapes. Ludwig Goransson’s score for “Oppenheimer,” for which he will likely win his second Oscar, is for the most part an exception. Although not as thematically interwoven as Hans Zimmer’s scores once were for Nolan’s films, Goransson’s score has some soaring themes and heart-stoppingly intense bits to it. Nevertheless, my personal vote would be for the late Robbie Robertson, whose propulsive score for “Killers of the Flower Moon” was a perfect accompaniment to the film, featuring drums and flutes in a multivocal symphony of pain that propelled the movie forward at every turn. Also deserving mention are the strange and evocative notes of Jerksin Fendrix’s score for “Poor Things,” which is used sparingly but to great effect.
Best Sound
“The Creator”
“Maestro”
“Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One”
“Oppenheimer”
“The Zone of Interest”
Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One was the most underappreciated film of the last year. Released a week before Barbenheimer, it sputtered at the box office (comparatively), which is unfortunate, because it’s a near-perfect entry into a franchise that only gets better with age, much like its star, Tom Cruise. So, while I personally want to see it win a technical category to honor its peerless craftsmanship in the action genre, I recognize that the most deserving and almost assured winner here is probably Oppenheimer; no filmmaker recognizes the importance of the aural component of the film experience better than Christopher Nolan. Seeing Oppenheimer in theaters was as immersive of a sound experience I’ve had seeing a movie since at least “Dune,” and perhaps since Nolan’s “Dunkirk.”
Best Production Design
“Barbie”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Napoleon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
This category is a bloodbath, much like it was in 2019, when “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” defeated “1917.” Period detail, as with those films, is often rewarded here, and there are three historical films in this lineup that are veristically and expansively built at grand scale to the last detail (“Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Napoleon,” and “Oppenheimer”).
Nevertheless, I find the creation of a fictional world to be arguably an even more impressive feat and, in my eyes, this race is therefore neck and neck between Barbie and Poor Things. I give the edge to Barbie because of how tangibly the audience experience is shaped by the physical space of the Dream House, although there were no more striking backdrops than the Expressionistic, neo-Victorian steampunk sets of Poor Things. It’s a good choice either way.
Best Cinematography
“El Conde”—Edward Lachman
“Killers of the Flower Moon”—Rodrigo Prieto
“Maestro”—Matthew Libatique
“Oppenheimer”—Hoyte van Hoytema
“Poor Things”—Robbie Ryan
This one is also tough. The incomparable Rodrigo Prieto (who also shot Barbie) crafted one of Martin Scorsese’s most visually stunning films to date, in Killers of the Flower Moon, which is replete with entire scenes that are sheer, economical cinematic poetry. In this category, voters often go gaga over black-and-white (“Roma,” “The Artist”) and, indeed, all four of the other nominees are at least partially in monochrome. In each case the choice is purposeful and vivid, but nevertheless, because I narrowly snubbed it above, I need to give the prize to Robbie Ryan for Poor Things, the most visually nuanced and fully imagined film of the year, featuring the curious compositions and clever angles (including fish-eye-lenses) that previously featured in Lanthimos’ “The Favourite” (also shot by Ryan).
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“Golda”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
“Society of the Snow”
The most central (and commented upon) use of prosthetics in a film from the past year was in Maestro, in which Bradley Cooper sports a striking schnozz in an effort to more closely resemble Bernstein. I personally was not alienated by that choice, which I feel is squarely within the realm of creative decision-making (and was sanctioned by Berstein’s own children). In fact, there were moments in that film in which I truly felt I was watching Leonard Bernstein, not Bradley Cooper, and what is a higher goal of makeup work than total immersion? No other film quite reached that level, although the Frankensteinian scarring of Willem Dafoe in Poor Things was exquisitely rendered.
Best Costume Design
“Barbie”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Napoleon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
All the work in this category was terrific, and for me it comes down to the centrality of costume to the story. And again, no film has a better case than Barbie, which features dozens, if not hundreds, of eye-popping outfits that give texture and vibrancy to the Technicolor Candy Land world of the film. Noteworthy also is the contrast of style in different points in the film, and the role of clothing at various junctures of the story such as when Barbie and Ken first arrive in Venice Beach and try to fit in sartorially, with little success.
Best Film Editing
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“The Holdovers”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
Editing legend and longtime Scorsese collaborator Thelma Schoonmaker managed to hold together an expansive story within an artful structure in the three-hour-and-twenty-six minute long “Killers of the Flower Moon.” She would be a deserving winner. Nevertheless, I feel the award will probably go to Jennifer Lame for “Oppenheimer,” which was pound-for-pound the most impeccably well-structured film of the year, in which Nolan strikes the right balance (rarely for him, according to his detractors) between conceptual ambition and narrative clarity. But “Killers of the Flower Moon” deserves something; so my personal vote would be for Thelma, if I had one.
Best Visual Effects
“The Creator”
“Godzilla Minus One”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
“Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One”
“Napoleon”
Although earlier I waxed poetic about Mission: Impossible and how it deserves a technical Oscar, I am personally gunning for the magnificent monster epic, Godzilla Minus One, in this category. “Minus One” puts most American action cinema to shame not just with the quality of its construction but with the fact that it was reportedly made on a comparatively paltry $15 million budget (which I believe is the snacks allotment for a Marvel miniseries episode). The Academy gets minus one point in my ledger if it does not give “Godzilla” something, and considering this was the only nomination the film got, it has to be here.
Best Animated Feature
“The Boy and the Heron”
“Elemental”
“Nimona”
“Robot Dreams”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
It seems likely that the un-retired Miyazaki will receive this award for his widely lauded film, The Boy and the Heron. Nevertheless, “Spider-Verse” has proven to be an enduring and widely popular franchise, praised both for conventional entertainment and innovative animation styles. The winner will likely be one of the two, but I think the Academy is more likely to honor a gray-bearded master (on whom there was an exhibit at the Academy Museum in the past year), as opposed to a sequel.
Best International Feature Film
“Io capitano “(Italy)
“Perfect Days” (Japan)
“Society of the Snow” (Spain)
“The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany
“The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
Who knows when the rule was established that a country is only allowed to submit one film for consideration in this category, but it was presumably to thwart the French. If so, then it worked well this year, when the French commission selected the Juliette Binoche film The Taste of Things for consideration here, over the Palme d’Or winner Anatomy of a Fall, which of course received multiple nominations and was my pick for best film of the year. The decision backfired on them, as the Taste of Things did not receive a nomination.
The likely winner then is The Zone of Interest, Jonathan Glazer’s chilling and ambitious Holocaust drama about the family of Auschwitz commandant Rudolf Höss, as it attempts to create an idyllic life of Lebensraum outside the walls of the most notorious factory of death in human history. The powerful film was boosted by a Best Director nomination for Glazer, and should be the winner here.
Best Documentary Feature Film
“Bobi Wine: The People’s President”
“The Eternal Memory”
“The Four Daughters”
“To Kill a Tiger”
“20 Days in Mariupol”
20 Days in Mariupol is a powerful and timely documentary that reminds us of the horrors of the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its impact on civilians. In this moment, in the wake of the death of Alexey Navalny (the documentary about him won the Oscar last year) and at a time of flagging support for Ukraine, this film could not be more important and the Academy will take advantage of the opportunity to make a statement.
But who’s keeping score? The Academy Awards, at their best, are a celebration of the role of movies in American and global culture, not a three-hour dictionary entry for Narzissmus de kleinen Differenzen). Movies remain our most fundamentally human and most mutually comprehensible artistic medium, the closest to a universal language, and here at the Lemur, we hope they continue to do so.
