Hello from the side of reality before the 2024 Presidential Election.

Have you ever felt like you knew something was about to happen? Or, afterward, felt like you knew it all along? How’s that going for your stock portfolio?

Psychology speaks of an inverse relationship between our confidence before an event and our hindsight certainty. The less certain we are going in, the more we tend to claim we “saw it coming” afterward. Case in point: right now, everyone says this election is a toss-up. But tomorrow, history books will dissect why the election “couldn’t have gone any other way.”

In the spring of 2024, I worked in a campaign strategy consultancy in Washington, D.C. I learned that numbers can surprise you—data from surveys routinely bust myths we didn’t even know we held. Just say “rural,” and images flood in: cornfields, tractors, and booming church rallies full of toothless weirdos. But did you know that fewer than 8% of rural Americans work in agriculture? Or rural voters are less likely than urban voters to believe the Bible is literally true, and the least likely group to favor megachurch pastors?

Here’s the inconvenient truth: when you’re not there, you don’t understand. In a place where it seems like everyone who bleeds blue, votes blue, you lose all sense of an election happening across a vast, varied country. 

So, here’s what I’m going to do. Before election night, I’m asking my five closest friends, “How certain are you about the outcome of this election?” I’ll jot down their responses, put that slip of paper away, and check back after the results are in. Let’s see just how different the story looks tomorrow.

By: David Goh