There has never been a time when Israel’s relations with its neighbors in the Middle East were not tumultuous, to say the least. Despite a history of almost exclusively hostile relations with its neighbors, however, Israel has, over the last two decades, steadily managed to engineer semi-normalized relations with several key states in its proximity, most notably the Gulf States. Beginning with the Arab Peace Initiative in 2002, progress in normalizing relations between the predominantly Arab Gulf States (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait, and Oman) and Israel has gradually materialized and grown in strength, most recently culminating in the substantial peace agreement known as the Abraham Accords.
Negotiated and signed in September 2020, the Accords established a peace framework that initiated a normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and the Gulf States of Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Morocco and Sudan. Prior to the agreements, these countries had no official diplomatic ties with the Israeli government. To this day, US President Donald Trump boasts of the role he played in presiding over the Abraham Accords, which, indeed, were a significant move for formalizing productive and peaceful relations between Israel and the Gulf States. The Accords marked the most significant diplomatic triumph for Arab-Israeli relations since the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. The Accords were such a successful launching point for Arab-Israeli ties that the second Trump administration is seeking to potentially expand the Accords to include Syria, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia. The upward trajectory of increasingly warm relations in the region, therefore, seemed poised to break further ground.
That inter-state trajectory, however, which has lasted for over 20 years, was shattered this past month when Israel broke international law, and bombed the sovereign Gulf state of Qatar on September 9th. On that day, Israel launched an airstrike in the Leqtalifya district of Qatar’s capital, Doha, claiming to be engaging in a strategic targeting of Hamas operatives for its own national security. In reality, Israel deliberately bombed an official government residential complex in which leaders of Hamas were congregating to discuss an active ceasefire deal presented by the United States.
The outrageous move astounded pretty much everyone in the international community, including Trump himself, who, behind closed doors (and which our government will not tell you, and would not want you knowing), is furious at Netanyahu. Not only was the move reckless, but it also threatened the fragile balance of relations between Israel and the Gulf States, of which Qatar is a part, which have taken such effort to contrive and which the Abraham Accords helped bring about.
Although Qatar was not a part of the Abraham Accords, the country has deliberately positioned itself as a neutral diplomatic mediator between Israel and the Arab states for years, especially over the Palestinian question. While Israel does not see eye-to-eye with Qatar, especially regarding Qatar’s allowance of Hamas members in the country for purposes of negotiation, Qatar has at least put in substantial efforts to negotiate with all parties regardless of partisan recognition.
Furthermore, it is an ally of pretty much everyone relevant in the region, including the United States, or at least it keeps its diplomatic doors open to function as a go-between for parties who are too hostile to engage directly with one another. They actively played a role in hostage negotiations under the Biden administration. So for Israel to suddenly attack the country may signify a fundamental turning point in regional relations.
While Israel’s standing in the Middle East has generally suffered over the last two years because of the war in Gaza, it has still managed to keep diplomatic ties open with Middle Eastern states, especially those in the Gulf. The strike on Qatar could change that. The decision of Israel to completely violate the sovereignty of an independent Arab state, member of the United Nations and of the Arab League, in a time in which the two countries are not at war, has potentially upended the last two decades of Arab-Israeli relations.
We are already seeing the spillover effects manifest in the Arab world. On September 15th, irate Arab leaders convened in Doha to discuss the proper response to the Israeli attack. While they did not come to a decisive agreement on the proper response to Israel, they stated in the summit’s final communiqué that attending countries should “review diplomatic and economic relations” and “initiate legal proceedings” against Israel.
The Qatari Prime Minister went as far as to call the attack “state terrorism.” Other outspoken leaders, like Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, offered stark predictions, stating that, in wantonly attacking Qatar, Israel has jeopardized its entire relational framework with the Arab states, and the potential recognition of its statehood by member nations.
The summit indicates a potentially major change in the kind of relations Arab leaders will want to have with Israel. Despite the decades of progress to maintain steady relations with its skeptical neighbors, Israel has now perhaps dealt such progress an unsalvageable blow, especially for the Gulf States. It is those states that have supervised the greatest advances in normalizing relations with Israel, and now, for that group to see one of its own attacks in broad daylight is a wrenching betrayal. It is safe to say that Israel has officially proven that it has become a rogue state. It may be that Arab leaders will decide they are done negotiating with a state that has no regard for their sovereignty and guarantees no adherence to diplomatic normalcy.
If Israel is willing to attack a country like Qatar, which has gone to painstaking lengths to declare its neutrality and ensure open dialogue with all parties involved, there is no reason why it would not do the same for any other Arab state who may be guilty, in their view, of posing a threat to their national security. And the pretext under which Israel has come to justify its military actions against neighboring countries, namely that they are the maniacal tools of Hamas has shown it can essentially be a tool for Israel to justify attacks on whoever it wants. In the particular case of Qatar, it may also be worth noting that Al-Jazeera, who has probably better than anyone highlighted the sheer amount of destruction endured by Gaza over the last two years, is based on Doha.
Arab states know the precarious position that they occupy in this situation, and, as a collective bloc, it seems they are in the midst of considering bucking the last 20 years of diplomatic normalization with Israel altogether. Just as consequential, too, is the damage the Qatar bombing may have caused to Israel-US relations.
Israel, as is common knowledge, would not exist without the United States. That has been true at every single point in the country’s existence since its founding. The United States unconditionally maintains its firm allegiance to Israel, certainly to a fault in the lengths it will go to uphold it. However, the United States also has other allies in the region, including Qatar, which are vital to us.
The country hosts a large US military installation, and is a key ally for the US to negotiate with various actors in the region. In bombing Qatar, Israel has not only betrayed the decades of detente with its Arab neighbors, but its ironclad relationship with the United States. According to Trump, there was no communication between Netanyahu and the United States regarding the plans to attack Qatar prior to the strike, and Israel’s Prime Minister has been made aware of the US’ deep unappreciation for such roguish behavior. The only words of apology or contrition expressed by Israel for the attack were the ones which the US forced Netanyahu to utter from the White House in an attempt to save face.
We in the American public do not see it, because we are not shown it, but behind closed doors, as we speak, President Donald Trump is yelling furiously at Bibi over the phone. I have personally spoken with individuals familiar with the matter who have confirmed this. The grandstanding that we see in the media every day of our leaders claiming to have a relationship of complete and qualm-less affection for Israel is a facade, and it’s important that we remember that. Trump, who more than anything conducts foreign policy based on his personal sentiments and inflated sense of pride, is certainly seething at Israel’s Qatar attack and what it means for his plans for the Middle East. The president was after all the one who presided over the Abraham Accords and boasts about them as his great Middle East peace achievement, something he has used to stake claim on the Nobel Peace Prize.
On the current road that Israel is on, its position is utterly unsustainable in the relations it holds with its neighbors. Its global reputation has never been worse, with allies and adversaries looking at it in frustrated bewilderment. Countries which have staunchly supported Israel since its inception, including the United Kingdom which literally created it, are now voicing support for Palestinian sovereignty. But for the Arab countries especially, who have had to deal with Israeli military recklessness for decades, the Qatar strike represents an especially hurtful blow.
Relations were supposed to be normalizing, perhaps permanently, for Israel and the Arab states, especially Gulf ones like Qatar. Now, there is no reason why Arab states should believe that Israel is committed to such relations, and wouldn’t violate their sovereignty in so flagrant of a way the second they saw an expedient opportunity. And this condition is likely here to stay. Even after Benjamin Netanyahu is thrown out of office, and a new government is ushered in which may be more inclined to work with the world to improve Israel’s reputation, the damage may already be done.
We may now be entering a post-diplomacy era between Israel and its neighbors, and certainly one where the honeymoon phase of growing Israel-Gulf State relations is over. It is uncertain what the future of diplomatic action may look like, but it portends a perpetuation of the same tragic pattern of regional instability and geopolitical conflict that has plagued the Middle East for decades. The recent ceasefire “deal” between Israel and Hamas does not change this, as it was violated barely a week after being implemented. The only thing that is clear (mostly) is that we may have to face a world where relations between Israel and the Gulf states are in steady decline, and are unlikely to reverse course.
by Leo Goldberg
